WMWEATHER MASTER
FORECAST UPDATING SOURCES CONNECTING --:-- UTC --:--Z
SELECTED FOCUS

Washington, DC

National view remains active while local guidance loads.

NATIONAL OUTLOOKBuilding outlook
NEXT AIRPORTAwaiting forecast
AIRPORTS TO WATCH12-hour forecast
LOCAL FORECAST UPDATEDConnecting…

Building the operating picture…

CURRENT OUTLOOK

What needs attention now

CONNECTINGWaiting for terminal guidance
WHATBuilding the national decision picture

Checking complete terminal timelines before showing an action threshold.

WHENPending

Arrival, peak, and recovery timing will appear here.

CAUSEChecking the likely causes

Weather and live FAA impacts are checked separately.

CHANCE / SCENARIOPENDING

A numeric chance or official forecast scenario will appear when terminal guidance is ready.

No probability is shown before the forecast is ready

Planning guidance only. Before acting, confirm the airport timeline with official airport forecasts, observations, advisories, and FAA traffic-management products.

NATIONAL WEATHER MAP

Airport impacts: what and when

CONNECTING SOURCES
YOU ARE VIEWING Airport impacts • Selected lead 0H • Overall impact Select an airport marker to see timing, likelihood, and what to consider.
Overall impact — forecast areasNominalMonitorElevatedHighSevereAirport dots — observed nowVFRMVFRIFRLIFR

Awaiting national aviation observations…
SELECTED LOCATION FORECAST

Conditions and next 24 hours

SELECTED LOCATION
°F
LoadingFeels Humidity Wind
MODEL AGREEMENT / NEXT 24H
/ 100

Calculating agreement.

ENSEMBLE SIGNALmembers across families
24h temperature envelope
Peak precipitation risk
HOURLY CONSENSUS

Next 24 hours

Forecast details and technical checksSource health, weather details, model comparisons, and accuracy methodsOPEN ▾
AIRPORT FORECASTSCONNECTING

Building the main airport forecasts.

NOAA LAMPNOAA NBMNWS GRIDAWC TAF + METAR
Airport forecasts keep working even if optional map data is unavailable.
MAP WEATHERCONNECTING

Building the weather view between airports.

NWS DIGITAL GRIDOPEN-METEO • OPTIONAL
If map coverage narrows, airport forecasts keep working.
LIVE FAA OPERATIONSCHECKING

Checking five live FAA data feeds.

TFDMSFDPSTBFMTFMSITWS
Operational impacts appear only when the data format and freshness checks pass.
Deterministic command routing active


FORECAST SOURCESsystems and members
FORECAST MODEFORECASTchecking sources

Agreement is not the same as accuracy. Agreement shows whether today’s sources tell a similar story. Accuracy compares earlier forecasts with what later happened.

FORECAST TRUST

What is proven — and what is not yet

CHECKING STATUSCHECKING PROOF STATUS

Loading the current accuracy-proof status. Until it loads, assume nothing is proven and no accuracy claims are made.

GROUPS FULLY PROVENWeather-type and lead-time groups meeting every internal requirement
DAYS GATHEREDComplete daily evidence blocks in the furthest-along group
DAILY EVIDENCE BLOCKSOne vote per weather type, lead time, and UTC day

Weather moves in large systems, so one good forecast is usually “right” at many nearby airports and hours at the same time. Counting each of those as separate proof would inflate the score, so each weather type and lead time gets exactly one vote per day.

Each group needs at least 30 complete days of evidence — including 10 days when the hazard actually happened and 10 days when it did not — plus a passing statistical confidence check against four baseline forecasts.

Nothing on this panel is a claim of accuracy. Until every requirement passes, treat Weather Master as unproven and rely on official FAA and weather products.

MODEL COMPARISON

Temperature trajectory

INGESTION HEALTH

Source systems

PINNED RESEARCH REGISTRY

Machine intelligence stack

Loading registry…

Research models do not alter operational guidance without verification and promotion.

TECHNICAL ACCURACY DETAILS

Accuracy is checked against what happened.

THE EXACT FORECAST USERS SAW
ELIGIBLE DISPLAY ERROR SCORECOLLECTINGWaiting for eligible shown hazards to be checked
VS TOUGHEST BASELINECOLLECTINGDisplay advantage versus the strongest available baseline
PAIRED PROOF COVERAGE0/12Paired cells clearing every 95% confidence gate
NAMED NOAA PRODUCTS · SAME ISSUANCE, SAME METAR
VS NOAA NBM V5COLLECTINGWaiting for current native NBM pairs / 0/9 cells qualified
VS NOAA LAMP V2.7COLLECTINGWaiting for current native LAMP pairs / 0/6 cells qualified
SOURCE-GROUP DIAGNOSTICS
SOURCE ACCURACY VS NORMAL CONDITIONSCOLLECTINGWaiting for later airport observations
CALIBRATION GAPCOLLECTINGForecast probability versus observed event rate
PROOF COVERAGE0/12Qualified hazard/lead cells

Accuracy checking is starting. Automatic forecast adjustment stays off until enough later observations pass every safety check.

OPTIONAL ACCURACY DETAILS

How accurate is Weather Master?

CHECKING RESULTSMEASUREMENT IN PROGRESS

We compare eligible hazard chances shown to users with what airport observations later reported. Related airports and times are not treated as independent proof.

1. SAVE THE FORECASTStore the exact chance and time users saw.
2. CHECK WHAT HAPPENEDMatch it with a later airport observation.
3. REQUIRE ENOUGH CASESDo not claim improvement until both common and uncommon outcomes are tested.
ACCURACY STATUSSTILL LEARNINGWaiting for checked forecasts
VERSUS NOAA NBMSTILL LEARNINGWaiting for forecasts made at the same time
VERSUS NOAA LAMPSTILL LEARNINGWaiting for forecasts made at the same time
DO SHOWN CHANCES MATCH REALITY?STILL LEARNINGHow closely predicted chances match what happened
PRELIMINARY WEATHER / TIME GROUPS0 OF 12Groups clearing pair-level checks; correlation-aware proof is still required
SHOW RESULTS BY WEATHER THREAT AND TIME AHEADFour airport weather threats at forecast leads up to 12 hoursOPEN

Weather Master is still collecting enough cases for a fair comparison and does not yet claim to be the most accurate system.